
In Europe, three teams have already won their World Cup qualifying groups, earning passage to South Africa. After Saturday's action we will have a good idea who will win five of the other groups, with only Group 2 likely to remain in the balance. By the time Wednesday's final round of qualifying kicks off, Denmark, Italy, Serbia and Slovakia could be booking plane tickets to South Africa, along with the winner of Russia and Germany.
That clarity will come from a series of critical matches which will not only shape who wins Europe's nine groups but also frame which eight teams will make the playoff for the region's final four bids.
Here are Saturday's nine key matches.
9. Czech Republic versus Poland
The Czech Republic, the Pot A team in Group 3, where a dead team walking after only getting one point at group leading Slovakia in Round 7 (the first match of the last break). When, in Round 8, Northern Ireland lost at home to Slovakia and Poland did not get a point at Slovenia, that all changed.
Poland's lost combined with a Czech Republic dubbing of San Marino bumped the Czechs into fourth place, only two points behind Slovenia. With Slovenia going to Slovakia on Saturday (see below), a win in Prague over the Poles would vault the Czechs into the playoff spot.
It is a remarkable turn around for a team that was adrift two months ago. After the summer qualifiers, federation chief Ivan Hasek fired Frantisek Straka (who replaced Petr Rada) and took the squad's reigns. That change, along with the return to health of Galatasaray's Milan Baros and Arsenal's Tomas Rosicky, has the Czechs approaching their life line.
Poland has been poor on the road, only getting points from San Marino. The only got one point in two matches during the last break. Although they are mathematically alive, they have three teams to beat out and only two matches.
8. Serbia versus Romania
Serbia has a four point lead over France in Group 7. Thanks to a eight goal advantage in goal differential, the Serbs need only two points (or one draw from the French) to win the automatic qualifying spot.
Serbia's rise of this group still surprises some. There are many who keep thinking of scenarios by which the French will claim their assumed rightful place atop this table. That assumption would be a poor one, as Serbia has clearly been the best nation in this group thanks to Dejan Stanković, Nemanja Vidić and Miloš Krasić.
Last month, a ten man France got a point in Belgrade - an admirable result.
Romania came into qualifying the second rated team in this group, but the aging core that played well in last year's European Championships is unlikely to better France's Belgrade result.
7. Republic of Ireland versus Italy
Italy leads Group 8 with 20 points and clinches the group with a draw. Ireland, with a five point lead on Bulgaria for the playoff spot, stay on course for South Africa with a point. Speculation has Ireland manager Giovanni Trapattoni going all-out against his home country, but given Trapattoni's controlled and conservative style, he will recognize the value of a point.
With both teams clinching their respective spots with a draw, expect a boring match. Two pragmatic Italian managers with their eyes on one point are likely to play accordingly. Italy picking a Juventus-heavy side will add another plot line to the Trapattoni story, but a manager of his experience is unlikely to be moved.
6. Ukraine versus England
If the favored Ukraine get their three points, the losers will not be England, who having already qualified have no stake in this match. Croatia, who do not play on Saturday, miss out on the World Cup if Ukraine wins.
As of now, Ukraine is three points behind Ukraine but have a better goal differential and a match-in-hand. If they convert that match into three points on Saturday, they will improve their goal differential advantage. At Andorra on Wednesday, there is no reason to believe they will give back second place.
That assumes a win over England, who have yet to drop points in qualifying. As a result, England has their place in South Africa secured. That brings focus issues into a match where England would be underdogs if all things were equal. England needed a 85th minute goal from John Terry to win the reserve fixture (2-1 in April).
Along with Ukraine approaching this as a must-win match, the home team is better situated to get three points.
5. Portugal versus Hungary
Like the Czechs, the Portuguese were left for dead, but thanks to their 1-0 victory at Hungary in the last round, they are in position to take advantage of Sweden's trip to Denmark (again, see below).
Only two points (and one goal, on differential) behind the second place Swedes, Carlos Queiroz's side could be in the playoff spot come Saturday night, provided Sweden does not win in Copenhagen. Given their win in Budapest, Portugal should be expected to take care of their part despite having draw half of their eight qualifiers.
But just because Portugal is expected to do something does not mean it will happen, part of the reason why a team of their talent are in this position. With Hungary also sitting two points back of Sweden, both teams will be motivated to keep their World Cup dreams alive.
For Hungary to get to the playoff spot, they will not only have to win in Lisbon but also follow-up with a win in Copenhagen. The odds are better for Portugal, who host Malta in the group's final round.
4. Slovakia versus Slovenia
With a five point lead on the group, the Slovakians clinch qualifications with a draw in Bratislava. Up two points on the Czech Republic and finishing qualifying at San Marino on Wednesday, a draw also serves Slovenia's needs, as they are likely to make up any small differential deficit they would have against a San Marino team that has scored once in qualifying (while allowing 44).
A resurgent Czech Republic team will be hoping for a Slovakia win, but given the Slovak's lead on the table, the Slovenians are likely to be the more ambitious side. Much like the Ireland-Italy match, the risks may not justify such ambition. While a win over Slovakia would maintain their league over the Czechs and keep alive their slim hopes of winning this group, losing sends them down the only reasonable path they have to third place.
On the road, against a host that would be thrilled with a point, Slovenia may oblige and keep on track to the UEFA playoff. While the idea of either Slovakia or Slovenia qualifying has been scoffed at by some who frequent English-language football blogs, these are both very talented sides with talent playing across Europe.
3. Greece versus Latvia
Perhaps not the most glamorous match, but it is one of the most important. Even on points, Greece leads Latvia for Group 2's playoff spot thanks to goal differential. With both hosting minnows on Wednesday and group-leading Switzerland (three points ahead) hosting Israel after going to Luxembourg, Saturday's match in Athens is tantamount to a playoff for the playoff spot.
Greece won the reverse fixture in Riga, 2-0 in September of 2008. Since then Greece has won only twice in six matches (2-2-2). Latvia has an identical record but is coming off an impressive win in Israel on September 5. While the Greeks should be considered the favorites, there are hints that this could be one of the feel-good world football stories that we see every-so-often.
Feel-good if you aren't a Greece supporter.
2. Denmark versus Sweden
Ahead of this huge derby, Denmark has yet to lose in this qualifying cycle and need only a draw against Sweden to guarantee at least the playoff spot. The only way the could draw with Sweden and not win this group is if they then lose at home to Hungary while Sweden beats Albania by six or more goals.
Denmark could take care of all confounding scenarios by beating the Swedes, but if they do it will be the first time Sweden has lost on the road. They have two wins and two losses, though they have scored only three goals in those four matches.
The flip-side of that coin is a stellar defensive record. Sweden has allowed only three goals in eight matches. Only Spain, having allowed two goals, posts a better mark. Though Denmark leads the group in goal scoring, a nil-nil result is a strong possibility. Sweden has played three scoreless qualifiers, including both of their matches against Portugal.
Sweden was not able to do similarly when they hosted the Danes in June, giving up a 22nd minute goal to Thomas Kahlenberg en route to a 1-0 loss. If that result were repeated, Sweden would not only lose their chance to catch Denmark, they would likely lose their playoff spot to the Portuguese.
1. Russia versus Germany
This match got its own preview, but the spectacle deserves a little more consideration. In UEFA, where the best teams are split amongst nine groups (unlike in CONMEBOL) a match like this is rare. Germany is ranked fourth in the world (tied with Italy). Russia is ranked sixth. With the automatic World Cup birth on the line, it's hard to imagine a scenario where UEFA qualifying could produce a better combination of stakes and quality.





