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Perhaps that turn-out was influenced by Uruguay's shocking September loss to Peru in Lima. Peru had not won a qualifier in a year, and Uruguay - then poised to get one the the region's automatic births, inexplicably lost, 1-0. The team bounced back with three goals at home against a Colombian team that had temporarily passed them in the table, but after Lima, Uruguay's quality is in question.
Now Uruguay, who usually play their matches at 43 meters above sea level, goes to Quito, 2,850 meters above sea level, to face Ecuador. Ecuador's only home loss in qualifying was to Venezuela, 1-0. They drew with Brazil. They controlled and beat Argentina. They drew with Paraguay. They beat Chile.
Compounding the problems playing at altitude is the style of the Ecuadorians. They have a very strong, athletic team who are not afraid to use the combine their physicality plus the rigors of altitude to maximize their advantage at home. For a Uruguayan squad that's only posted one road win in qualifying, Quito may be too much.
The Sky Blues have recourse in their attackers. Diego Forlán and Luis Suárez have a claim to being the best duo on the continent, and they will need a special effort against a "veteran" Ecuador defense to get three points. Can Forlán and Suárez do what Messi and Tévez, Fabiano and Robinho could not?
That would be ambitious, and although it would do little to solve their qualification problems, Uruguay would be happy with a draw and the opportunity to take their chances against Argentina on Wednesday. If they draw and Argentina beats Peru (which is expected), they would be three points behind the Albicelestes going back to Montevideo. Provided Venezuela does not sweep through Paraguay and Brazil (which they very well could), the match in Montevideo would be decisive.
Unfortunately, Uruguay is probably going to be left hoping Peru can stun Argentina, ironic considering it was Uruguay's result in Lima that could ultimately sink them. Argentina is not going to lose to Peru, and when Uruguay runs up against Antonio Valencia, Christian Benítez, Edison Méndez, Walter Ayoví, and Segundo Castillo, they are not going to beat Ecuador.
Given their history, talent, and where they were in the standings four rounds ago, Uruguay missing the World Cup is galling. They have recently struggled to make World Cups, but they have done well in Copa América, and have the talent and tradition to expect better.
Yet it's going to happen. Uruguay is going to miss the World Cup, and because they did not qualify for Germany - because the world will be focused what's happening in Argentina - Uruguay's failure will be overlooked. Even within Uruguay, where interest in waning, the failure will be glossed over by most.
If Uruguay end up winning on Wednesday in Argentina (knocking Argentina behind Venezuela or Colombia), the Uruguayans might actually be seen (internationally) as a success. Still, nothing short of South Africa should be acceptable for this team.
Prediction: Ecuador, 2-1
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El Octagono
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