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Surprise points against Uruguay and Chile in Rounds 14 and 15, combined with three points from Peru in Round 16, have launched Venezuela back into contention for their first World Cup birth (Venezuela is the only nation in South America never to appear in a World Cup). To get to South Africa, Venezuela (currently seventh) will have to get results against Paraguay (Saturday) and at Brazil (Wednesday), but they are catching the group's two top teams at the right time.
Both Paraguay and Brazil clinched their World Cup spots last break. Whether that effects their approach will be seen, but it's safe to assume Venezuela would rather play those nations after they had clinched.
Entering the last week of qualifying one point back of fifth place (the region's playoff spot), Venezuela is set to take advantage of their competitors having to play each other. With Ecuador and Uruguay playing in Quito on Saturday, Venezuela would move into sixth place with a win (potentially fifth, depending on Argentina does in Buenos Aires against Peru).
To Paraguay's credit, they are making few changes from the core squad that's been behind their qualifying success. Boca Juniors' Claudio Morel, who started one of the last break's matches, is not available, and Argentine midfielder Nestor Ortigoza has been called-up (and seems likely to get capped). Beyond those changes, Gerado Martino's selection has been uncontroversial and consistent, and he has professed his intention to finish as high as possible.
Intentions are nice and in this case admirable, but Venezuela - unbeaten in their last five qualifiers - would be a tough match under normal circumstances. For a nation not expected to make its impact until the next cycle, Venezuela is showing surprising aspiration. Nine of the players they've called in this year are 21 or younger, and five other players are under 26 years of age.
Already destined to finish higher in qualifying than every before, Venezuela has a chance to do something special. If they can cease on the natural relaxation Paraguay's bound to feel, they will win this match. It will take the find of guile and focus that you normally do not associate with a young team, but the naiveté of youth can be used to the Venezuelan's advantage.
Tactically, the match-up with Paraguay also suits Venezuela. Paraguay did score twice against Venezuela in the reverse fixture, but throughout qualifying, their strength has been at the back, where only Brazil has allowed fewer goals. Venezuela, however, has scored multiple goals in each of their last three qualifiers, including matches the matches against Uruguay and Chile. Though Salvador Cabañas has shown himself to be very resourceful for Paraguay, nobody Martino has called in has more than nine international goals. An aggressive Venezuela team (that's allowed 27 goals in 16 qualifiers) might not be taking as many risks moving forward against Paraguay as they has when playing Uruguay (with Diego Forlán and Luis Suárez) and Chile (with Humberto Suazo, Alexis Sánchez, Mark González and Matías Fernández).
If La Vinotinto can get Giancarlo Maldonado or Juan Arango to do something special, they can build the confidence needed to take three points in Puerto Ordaz and go to Brazil in Round 18 with a chance to make history. If that magic happens early, Venezuela need not be as aggressive as they have been throughout the tournament. But then again, perhaps that's how César Farías's team got here: by not worrying about what could happen.
Prediction: Venezuela 2, Paraguay 1
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